Rogue Communist Party of China Sells Helicopter Gunships to UWSA

China having problems with all its neighbors. The world should supply Chinese democracy dissidents with weapons.

http://www.irrawaddy.org/archives/33350

China has allegedly sold helicopter gunships to ethnic Wa rebels who occupy areas of Shan State in eastern Burma, intelligence monitor Jane’s Information Group reported on Monday.
The report claimed China “delivered several Mil Mi-17 ‘Hip’ medium- transport helicopters armed with TY-90 air-to-air missiles to the Wa in late February and early March, according to both Myanmar ethnic minority and Myanmar government sources.”
Bertil Lintner, an expert on Burma and author of Great Game East: India, China and the Struggle for Asia’s Most Volatile Frontier, confirmed the accuracy of the Jane’s report.
Lintner said the Burmese government was moving to gain control of the Shan State Army-North’s mountainous bases on the western bank of the Salween River, for an eventual offensive against the Wa rebels.

“Since the Burmese government signed a ceasefire with the Shan, they haven’t withdrawn any troops, but rather they have reinforced their troops,” said Aung Kyaw Zaw, an analyst based on the China-Burma border. “That is not a good sign. So, the Wa wants to prepare [for a possible war].”
The purchase of the gunships is part of Wa moves to make the Wa region more like an independent state, able to project force if necessary.

The United Wa State Army is the largest ethnic armed group in Burma, with an estimated 20,000 well-equipped fighters, and advanced weaponry including surface-to-air missiles.
The Burmese government has carried out an offensive against the SSA-North and Kachin rebels in northern Shan State since mid-April, calling up troops from as far away as Karenni State to back up their forces in Shan State, according to Aung Kyaw Zaw.

Quoting a Wa rebel source, the Jane’s report said “the Mi-17s reached the Wa-administered area by flying across the Mekong River from Lao rather than direct from China.”
Jane’s said five helicopters had been bought, but the Burmese government, which confirmed the deal, said only two aircraft had so far been delivered.

The UWSA headquarters is in Panghsang, northeastern Shan State on the China border, but it has a secondary stronghold in southern Shan State on the border with Thailand.
Burma and the United States have long said the UWSA funds its activities through heroin and methamphetamine production, earning large sums of money through illegal activities.
If the government launches an attack on the Wa, it would be a big war, according to analysts. There have been unconfirmed reports in recent weeks that the Wa have been digging in for a protracted ground war, hollowing out tunnels and constructing fortified positions, according to the sources.
The Burmese government recently bought a number of Mi-24P ‘Hind’ gunships from Russia. The reported sale of the Mi-17s to the Wa, armed with TY-90 short-range air-to-air missiles, would provide a strong deterrent to Naypyidaw moving against the Wa.

China is using North Korea to do their dirty work says Marc Faber

Faber noted, "In general, [North Korea] is a country that can hardly produce bicycles. They have practically no industries. How can they have nuclear technology? How can they supply weapons to Iran?" He claimed that "China is using the North Koreans" to do their dirty work. - in CNBC Squawk Box

Encouraged by Chinese communist Party's help famine struck North Korea vows nuclear attack on US, saying Washington will be 'engulfed in a sea of fire'

North Korea amplified its threatening rhetoric as the U.N. Security Council approved new sweeping sanctions, vowing to launch a first-strike nuclear attack against the United States and threatening to engulf Washington in a "sea of fire." An unidentified spokesman for Pyongyang's Foreign Ministry said the North will exercise its right for "a preemptive nuclear attack to destroy the strongholds of the aggressors" because Washington is pushing to start a nuclear war against the North.

At a mass rally in Pyongyang on Thursday, Army Gen. Kang Pyo Yong told the crowd that North Korea is ready to fire long-range nuclear-armed missiles at Washington. "Intercontinental ballistic missiles and various other missiles, which have already set their striking targets, are now armed with lighter, smaller and diversified nuclear warheads and are placed on a standby status," Kang said. "When we shell (the missiles), Washington, which is the stronghold of evils, .... will be engulfed in a sea of fire."
White House spokesman Jay Carney said at a briefing that the U.S. is fully capable of defending itself after a North Korean missile attack.  U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Susan Rice reacted to the warnings Thursday, saying North Korea will "achieve nothing" with threats."North Korea will achieve nothing by continued threats and provocations. These will only further isolate the country and its people and undermine international efforts to promote peace and stability in northeast Asia," Rice said.
The U.N. Security Council unanimously endorsed a fourth round of sanctions against Pyongyang in a fresh attempt to rein in its nuclear and ballistic missile programs.

How the US Should Respond to China's Cyber Espionage plague coming form Communist Party of China

China's one-child policy creates wimpy military recruits, deserters

In March 2011, Xuexi Shibao (Study Times), the organ of the Central Party School that teaches party ideology, ran an article that said, "Soldiers from the one-child generation are wimps who have absolutely no fighting spirit." 

The one-child pampered children began quitting the military for all sorts of frivolous reasons. "I don't want to get a tan" and "I hate military quarters with no air conditioning" were among excuses cited.

Chinese soldiers engages in widespread gambling
http://ajw.asahi.com/article/asia/china/AJ201302060009 

The emergency notice issued by police in Jilin province gives a physical description of the four deserters as well as a warning that they may be ready to commit a crime

CAOSHI, China--While China's military prowess has long been a source of concern for other nations, there are signs that all is not well within the armed forces.
The posturing by China on the Senkaku Islands issue, for instance, suggests a state of readiness that could result in a call to arms at a moment's notice.
But an incident in late 2011 that was never publicly disclosed by China but uncovered by The Asahi Shimbun suggests the central leadership is being forced to re-evaluate recruitment to the People's Liberation Army/Navy.

The facts of the matter are this: Four soldiers deserted from their unit armed with automatic weapons and stolen ammo. A dragnet was set up and a fatal shootout followed. It emerged that the soldiers had racked up sizable gambling debts and armed themselves so they could rob a bank and become solvent again.

But as often happens in reporting on China, the gravity of the situation faced by security authorities at the time was not immediately apparent until long afterward.
On the morning of Nov. 9, 2011, police in Jilin province, northeastern China, issued an emergency notice to all financial institutions in the province.
It said, "Four soldiers armed with model 95 automatic rifles have stolen 795 rounds of ammunition and deserted their unit."

The soldiers, aged between 19 and 24, belonged to a unit based in Jilin city. Photos of the four men, along with their physical characteristics, were issued.
The notice went on to say, "Contact the police if you have any information."
The four deserted from their base early that morning and were trapped by police some eight hours later when they were stopped at an expressway toll booth in Caoshi town of Fushun city, about 200 kilometers from their base.
A booth worker, recalling that day, described the fast-moving events as "like a scene out of an action movie."

The four deserters approached the toll booth in a taxi. They fired at a police officer who tried to question them. They were quickly surrounded by dozens of members of a special police unit. Gunfire raged, and three of the deserters were killed. The fourth was taken into custody.
Neither the military nor the police ever made a public announcement about the incident, suggesting a deep level of shock took hold in the military establishment over deserters going on the run with stolen weapons.
According to a source who was involved in the joint investigation by the military and police, the four men smuggled a tablet computer to their base quarters and became heavily involved in an online gambling site. They were unable to pay off their losses with their monthly salaries of 2,000 yuan (about 30,000 yen, or $323) and began piling up debt.
Their gambling activities came to the attention of their superior officer only a few days before the incident, and they were severely chastised.

According to the source, the lone survivor who was taken into custody said, "We wanted to take revenge on our superior officer." He also revealed that the group had planned to rob a bank.
"The incident revealed some serious problems, including a low sense of morale among military personnel and the lax oversight structure," said the source.
At one time, a military career was considered the passport to a better life as it provided entry into becoming a Communist Party member or finding a job at a state-run company after completion of military service.
But that no longer appears to be the case for those born in 1979, when China implemented its one-child policy, and in the years that followed. According to several military sources, things changed when those born under that policy began joining the military.
The ratio among all military personnel of only children rose from about 20 percent in 1996 to more than 70 percent in 2006.
These pampered children began quitting the military for all sorts of frivolous reasons. "I don't want to get a tan" and "I hate military quarters with no air conditioning" were among excuses cited.
In March 2011, Xuexi Shibao (Study Times), the organ of the Central Party School that teaches party ideology, ran an article that said, "Soldiers from the one-child generation are wimps who have absolutely no fighting spirit."
According to a source at a military think tank, an internal study found that 26 percent of soldiers who are only children quit because they found military training too tough.
So now, the military is focusing on recruiting members with proven academic achievement. And that means college graduates, as many are having difficulty landing a job. In 2009, only 68 percent of college graduates found employment.

In the past, the military only recruited among junior and senior high school students. But it was flooded with applications when it expanded recruitment efforts to cover college students.
In Beijing city alone, about 120,000 college students applied for military service in 2009.
A high-ranking officer in the Beijing Military Region said, "Having more outstanding soldiers allows us to respond more effectively to information technology as well as advanced weapons."
However, it remains to be seen if recruiting college students will alleviate the problem of desertion.
In early 2011, nine members of a unit with about 400 members in Wuhan, Hubei province, deserted. Three refused to return to their unit, so commanders implemented an administrative measure that prohibited the three from finding work at a state-run company or leaving China.
A high-ranking officer with the Wuhan security district, which decided on the disciplinary measure, said, "We were prepared for criticism (that the measure was excessive). We had to set an example in order to secure adequate staffing levels."

China Newspaper Says To 'Prepare For The Worst' After Military Confrontation With Japan In The East China Sea

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/754886.shtml

"Peaceful" Rise of China demonstrating itself

Y-8 plane game of China

Y-8 a transport plane, and it can be, but the aircraft has more than 30 variants. The Y-8 performs everything from Mineral Research, to Geophysical Surveying, to Electronic Warfare to Intelligence Gathering and one variant is simply an innocuous but lethal fully loaded gunship, with two heavy cannons and three heavy machine guns.

It's the perfect plane for a game of cat and mouse because if the Y-8 ever received fire from Japan's F-15s, China could simply maintain it was an unarmed transport model carrying troops, or the Y8-F model that carries only livestock.

In the meantime, the plane can perform all manner of sophisticated tests on the seabed floor, while eavesdropping on Japanese communications. China has been flying these planes consistently lately to surveil the contested island chain that's supposed to hold billions in oil and gas reserves.

 After repeatedly flying surveillance aircraft into disputed airspace with Japan, which made Tokyo scramble F-15s in response, China sent fighters of its own on Thursday into the East China Sea.

A Friday press release out of China confirms the incident began when Beijing was flying a Shaanxi Y-8 on a "routine Thursday patrol" over the "oil and gas fields in the East China Sea."


So, again, on Thursday Japan spotted aircraft in its Air Defense Identification Zone (above the islands) that it believed to be Chinese J-7 interceptors, along with some J-10 fighters whose combat abilities rival that of Western jets. Japan responded with two F-15s scrambled from Naha, Okinawa — just a couple hundred miles away. There are minor variations from either side about who sent what first, but all agree the aircraft met above the islands.

The Chinese planes scattered soon after, but this marked the first time China and Japan flung military assets at one another over the East China Sea island dispute. A line was crossed and staying behind it in the future will only be more difficult.

n interesting fact about Naha, aside from its proximity to the contested territory, is that while being fairly remote, it is also home to Alfred R. Magleby, a United States Consul General who holds a M.S. in Strategic Studies from the U.S. Naval War College. This is appropriate, since the Naha Port (formerly Military) Facility is part of U.S. Forces Japan and the U.S. Marine Corps Air Station Futenma is less than nine miles from where Japan's F-15s scrambled.

In the future, when responding to China's fighter deployment, if Japan considers permitting its F-15 pilots to fire tracer bullets as warning shots against Chinese planes, it is now reasonable to assume that U.S. forces at Futenma may have an indirect say in that decision.

Firing tracers, which usually contain phosphorous or some highly flammable material, sends a line of light through the air like a laser. Tracers are usually loaded in about every tenth round to let gunners know where they're shooting, but in this case they would be fired to show Chinese pilots they're being fired upon.

The Chinese jets are likely flying from air base Shuimen, built east of the islands in Fujian Province, not too much farther from the islands than Naha, Okinawa. So both sides have assets equally within reach of the islands.

Three generations of Chinese PLAAF fighters in air force Night fighting training in the Tibetan plateau

Chinese fighters practice war games in Tibet to continue their occupation of Tibet

Arms race explodes as neighbours Vietnam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Thailand, Phillipines try to counter China

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/world/arms-race-explodes-as-neighbours-try-to-counter-china-20121118-29k4m.html#ixzz2Cg2XecEj

PHNOM PENH: An arms-buying spree across south-east Asia will be the elephant in the room when almost 20 world leaders meet in the Cambodian capital, Phnom Penh, on Tuesday.
Defence spending across the region increased 13.5 per cent to $US25.4 billion ($24.5 billion) last year and was expected to rise to $US40 billion by 2016, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute said.
Flush with economic success and wary of China's military expansion, countries are acquiring sophisticated sea- and air-based arsenals that include dozens of submarines that can operate in secret.
The institute said Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia had increased defence budgets by 66 per cent to 82 per cent from 2002 to last year.

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Indonesia was buying submarines from South Korea and coastal radar systems from China and the US, Vietnam was getting submarines and combat jets from Russia and had acquired Israeli ballistic missiles, defence analysts said.
Vietnam's defence budget for this year is $US3.1 billion, a rise of 35 per cent over last year. The Philippines has a huge wish-list of equipment it wants from the US and is also approaching Japan, South Korea, France and Britain for defence acquisitions.
Singapore, already the fifth-largest weapons importing nation, looked like keeping its title as the region's biggest spender, allocating $US9.7 billion this year on defence, 24 per cent of its national budget. The city-state's purchases included combat jets from the US and submarines from Sweden.
Thailand was planning to buy submarines and warplanes from Sweden that would eventually be fitted with anti-ship missiles, while arms deliveries to Malaysia jumped eightfold over the five years to 2009.
For decades, much of south-east Asia spent little on weapons except guns and tanks to respond to internal threats. But they are now building their defence capabilities amid tensions over territorial claims in the South China Sea and other squabbles that underscore the role of the East Asia Summit.
Leaders attending include the US President, Barack Obama, the Chinese Premier, Wen Jiabao, and the Australian Prime Minister, Julia Gillard.
Defence officials estimated 86 submarines would be added to regional fleets by 2020, 30 of which would belong to China, which already had the most.
Some Chinese nuclear submarines were expected to carry 12 sea-launched ballistic missiles and could eventually be equipped with multiple warheads.
A south-east Asia analyst from the Australian Defence Force Academy at the University of NSW, Carl Thayer, said the ''deployment of nuclear submarines, including ballistic missile submarines, will introduce a new geostrategic dimension to the regional balance of power''.
Professor Thayer said Chinese nuclear submarine deployments would attract continuing attention from the US Navy. He warned the arms buying spree could have a destabilising impact on regional security.
In a paper delivered in Vietnam at the weekend, Professor Thayer says ''south-east Asia is ripe for rivalry - but not armed conflict - due to the strategic mistrust between a rising and increasingly militarily powerful China and a US committed to maintaining the present balance of power''.
Senior US officials said Mr Obama's trip to Cambodia, the first by a US president, would reinforce the ''pivot'' of US security forces to Asia and the Pacific. The strategy is seen as a counterweight to China, which is aggressively asserting its claim to almost all the South China Sea. Parts of the area are also claimed by the Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia and Vietnam.
In his paper, Professor Thayer says the ''most disturbing'' trend in defence spending is China's growing reliance on citizen fishing fleets and paramilitary forces gathering in a disputed area to assert Chinese jurisdiction.


Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/world/arms-race-explodes-as-neighbours-try-to-counter-china-20121118-29k4m.html#ixzz2Cg2XecEj

PHNOM PENH: An arms-buying spree across south-east Asia will be the elephant in the room when almost 20 world leaders meet in the Cambodian capital, Phnom Penh, on Tuesday.
Defence spending across the region increased 13.5 per cent to $US25.4 billion ($24.5 billion) last year and was expected to rise to $US40 billion by 2016, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute said.
Flush with economic success and wary of China's military expansion, countries are acquiring sophisticated sea- and air-based arsenals that include dozens of submarines that can operate in secret.
The institute said Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia had increased defence budgets by 66 per cent to 82 per cent from 2002 to last year.

Advertisement

Indonesia was buying submarines from South Korea and coastal radar systems from China and the US, Vietnam was getting submarines and combat jets from Russia and had acquired Israeli ballistic missiles, defence analysts said.
Vietnam's defence budget for this year is $US3.1 billion, a rise of 35 per cent over last year. The Philippines has a huge wish-list of equipment it wants from the US and is also approaching Japan, South Korea, France and Britain for defence acquisitions.
Singapore, already the fifth-largest weapons importing nation, looked like keeping its title as the region's biggest spender, allocating $US9.7 billion this year on defence, 24 per cent of its national budget. The city-state's purchases included combat jets from the US and submarines from Sweden.
Thailand was planning to buy submarines and warplanes from Sweden that would eventually be fitted with anti-ship missiles, while arms deliveries to Malaysia jumped eightfold over the five years to 2009.
For decades, much of south-east Asia spent little on weapons except guns and tanks to respond to internal threats. But they are now building their defence capabilities amid tensions over territorial claims in the South China Sea and other squabbles that underscore the role of the East Asia Summit.
Leaders attending include the US President, Barack Obama, the Chinese Premier, Wen Jiabao, and the Australian Prime Minister, Julia Gillard.
Defence officials estimated 86 submarines would be added to regional fleets by 2020, 30 of which would belong to China, which already had the most.
Some Chinese nuclear submarines were expected to carry 12 sea-launched ballistic missiles and could eventually be equipped with multiple warheads.
A south-east Asia analyst from the Australian Defence Force Academy at the University of NSW, Carl Thayer, said the ''deployment of nuclear submarines, including ballistic missile submarines, will introduce a new geostrategic dimension to the regional balance of power''.
Professor Thayer said Chinese nuclear submarine deployments would attract continuing attention from the US Navy. He warned the arms buying spree could have a destabilising impact on regional security.
In a paper delivered in Vietnam at the weekend, Professor Thayer says ''south-east Asia is ripe for rivalry - but not armed conflict - due to the strategic mistrust between a rising and increasingly militarily powerful China and a US committed to maintaining the present balance of power''.
Senior US officials said Mr Obama's trip to Cambodia, the first by a US president, would reinforce the ''pivot'' of US security forces to Asia and the Pacific. The strategy is seen as a counterweight to China, which is aggressively asserting its claim to almost all the South China Sea. Parts of the area are also claimed by the Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia and Vietnam.
In his paper, Professor Thayer says the ''most disturbing'' trend in defence spending is China's growing reliance on citizen fishing fleets and paramilitary forces gathering in a disputed area to assert Chinese jurisdiction.


Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/world/arms-race-explodes-as-neighbours-try-to-counter-china-20121118-29k4m.html#ixzz2Cg2XecEj

PHNOM PENH: An arms-buying spree across south-east Asia will be the elephant in the room when almost 20 world leaders meet in the Cambodian capital, Phnom Penh, on Tuesday.
Defence spending across the region increased 13.5 per cent to $US25.4 billion ($24.5 billion) last year and was expected to rise to $US40 billion by 2016, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute said.
Flush with economic success and wary of China's military expansion, countries are acquiring sophisticated sea- and air-based arsenals that include dozens of submarines that can operate in secret.
The institute said Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia had increased defence budgets by 66 per cent to 82 per cent from 2002 to last year.

Advertisement

Indonesia was buying submarines from South Korea and coastal radar systems from China and the US, Vietnam was getting submarines and combat jets from Russia and had acquired Israeli ballistic missiles, defence analysts said.
Vietnam's defence budget for this year is $US3.1 billion, a rise of 35 per cent over last year. The Philippines has a huge wish-list of equipment it wants from the US and is also approaching Japan, South Korea, France and Britain for defence acquisitions.
Singapore, already the fifth-largest weapons importing nation, looked like keeping its title as the region's biggest spender, allocating $US9.7 billion this year on defence, 24 per cent of its national budget. The city-state's purchases included combat jets from the US and submarines from Sweden.
Thailand was planning to buy submarines and warplanes from Sweden that would eventually be fitted with anti-ship missiles, while arms deliveries to Malaysia jumped eightfold over the five years to 2009.
For decades, much of south-east Asia spent little on weapons except guns and tanks to respond to internal threats. But they are now building their defence capabilities amid tensions over territorial claims in the South China Sea and other squabbles that underscore the role of the East Asia Summit.
Leaders attending include the US President, Barack Obama, the Chinese Premier, Wen Jiabao, and the Australian Prime Minister, Julia Gillard.
Defence officials estimated 86 submarines would be added to regional fleets by 2020, 30 of which would belong to China, which already had the most.
Some Chinese nuclear submarines were expected to carry 12 sea-launched ballistic missiles and could eventually be equipped with multiple warheads.
A south-east Asia analyst from the Australian Defence Force Academy at the University of NSW, Carl Thayer, said the ''deployment of nuclear submarines, including ballistic missile submarines, will introduce a new geostrategic dimension to the regional balance of power''.
Professor Thayer said Chinese nuclear submarine deployments would attract continuing attention from the US Navy. He warned the arms buying spree could have a destabilising impact on regional security.
In a paper delivered in Vietnam at the weekend, Professor Thayer says ''south-east Asia is ripe for rivalry - but not armed conflict - due to the strategic mistrust between a rising and increasingly militarily powerful China and a US committed to maintaining the present balance of power''.
Senior US officials said Mr Obama's trip to Cambodia, the first by a US president, would reinforce the ''pivot'' of US security forces to Asia and the Pacific. The strategy is seen as a counterweight to China, which is aggressively asserting its claim to almost all the South China Sea. Parts of the area are also claimed by the Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia and Vietnam.
In his paper, Professor Thayer says the ''most disturbing'' trend in defence spending is China's growing reliance on citizen fishing fleets and paramilitary forces gathering in a disputed area to assert Chinese jurisdiction.


Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/world/arms-race-explodes-as-neighbours-try-to-counter-china-20121118-29k4m.html#ixzz2Cg2XecEj

PHNOM PENH: An arms-buying spree across south-east Asia will be the elephant in the room when almost 20 world leaders meet in the Cambodian capital, Phnom Penh, on Tuesday.

Defence spending across the region increased 13.5 per cent to $US25.4 billion ($24.5 billion) last year and was expected to rise to $US40 billion by 2016, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute said.

Flush with economic success and wary of China's military expansion, countries are acquiring sophisticated sea- and air-based arsenals that include dozens of submarines that can operate in secret.

The institute said Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia had increased defence budgets by 66 per cent to 82 per cent from 2002 to last year.
Advertisement

Indonesia was buying submarines from South Korea and coastal radar systems from China and the US, Vietnam was getting submarines and combat jets from Russia and had acquired Israeli ballistic missiles, defence analysts said.

Vietnam's defence budget for this year is $US3.1 billion, a rise of 35 per cent over last year. The Philippines has a huge wish-list of equipment it wants from the US and is also approaching Japan, South Korea, France and Britain for defence acquisitions.

Singapore, already the fifth-largest weapons importing nation, looked like keeping its title as the region's biggest spender, allocating $US9.7 billion this year on defence, 24 per cent of its national budget. The city-state's purchases included combat jets from the US and submarines from Sweden.

Thailand was planning to buy submarines and warplanes from Sweden that would eventually be fitted with anti-ship missiles, while arms deliveries to Malaysia jumped eightfold over the five years to 2009.

For decades, much of south-east Asia spent little on weapons except guns and tanks to respond to internal threats. But they are now building their defence capabilities amid tensions over territorial claims in the South China Sea and other squabbles that underscore the role of the East Asia Summit.

Leaders attending include the US President, Barack Obama, the Chinese Premier, Wen Jiabao, and the Australian Prime Minister, Julia Gillard.

Defence officials estimated 86 submarines would be added to regional fleets by 2020, 30 of which would belong to China, which already had the most.

Some Chinese nuclear submarines were expected to carry 12 sea-launched ballistic missiles and could eventually be equipped with multiple warheads.

A south-east Asia analyst from the Australian Defence Force Academy at the University of NSW, Carl Thayer, said the ''deployment of nuclear submarines, including ballistic missile submarines, will introduce a new geostrategic dimension to the regional balance of power''.

Professor Thayer said Chinese nuclear submarine deployments would attract continuing attention from the US Navy. He warned the arms buying spree could have a destabilising impact on regional security.

In a paper delivered in Vietnam at the weekend, Professor Thayer says ''south-east Asia is ripe for rivalry - but not armed conflict - due to the strategic mistrust between a rising and increasingly militarily powerful China and a US committed to maintaining the present balance of power''.

Senior US officials said Mr Obama's trip to Cambodia, the first by a US president, would reinforce the ''pivot'' of US security forces to Asia and the Pacific. The strategy is seen as a counterweight to China, which is aggressively asserting its claim to almost all the South China Sea. Parts of the area are also claimed by the Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia and Vietnam.

In his paper, Professor Thayer says the ''most disturbing'' trend in defence spending is China's growing reliance on citizen fishing fleets and paramilitary forces gathering in a disputed area to assert Chinese jurisdiction.